Sanity ekes out a win in Iowa

January 4, 2012
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Even the best can still get it wrong

The image to the left illustrates just how tricky political reporting and predicting can be.  When even a site with over ten billion (yes, that’s billion with a B) hits a year can get it wrong once in a while I don’t feel too bad.  (When all the votes were tallied, the Des Moines Register reported Mitt Romney did in fact eke out an 8 vote win over Rick Santorum in the Iowa caucuses last night.)

Over the weekend I was asked in a private email my forecast of who was going to win the Iowa caucuses.

When it comes to public political predictions I run away from them as fast as the erstwhile conservative runs from the truth.

I’m a commentating columnist who revels in highlighting the hypocrisy and lies of the left, I’m not the one with the “palms read” sign hanging outside the front door.

BUT, I have been known to privately impart my flashes into the future for those whom I know personally and whom I know won’t throw things at me when I’m wrong.

So I ventured out onto that limb with:

“……….I pretty much agree with Huckabee on this one.  Good to mild weather favors Romney but if bad weather sets in, it’s a bad day for the reputation of the Iowa caucuses as Paul has the most passionate supporters of any of them.  The recent exposure of Paul’s old newsletter and some of the contents herein put the last nail in his coffin with the nation but when it comes to Iowa and the skewed process who knows.

In the end I’m still the ultimate optimist though and somewhere I do believe there will be enough sanity that Romney pulls out the win, Paul second and Santorum third. I’m banking on the fact that the number one factor in 2012 is to avoid another four years of Obama policy and in the end enough caucus goers will realize neither Paul nor Santorum stand a snowballs chance……..”

So you see in the above, even with over thirty years of a steady diet of the junk food that is American politics, I still was a lousy 50/50 in even a private prediction.

Yes, the weather was good, sanity ruled and Romney eked out a victory, so my crystal ball remained intact on that one but Santorum put a nice big crack right down the middle of it by taking out Paul’s pushers.

Paul and the rest of the delusionals that make up the second tier have, as of this writing, all vowed to “carry on” to either New Hampshire or South Carolina or both and all have stated the obligatory…..”Iowa is just the first step, the people of Iowa have spoken but I intend to stay in this race and give the people of………(insert state here) their chance to speak.

Well, after seeing them all in debate after debate, talk show after talk show, internet ads one on top of another, I hope those people in those other states speak in solidarity with Iowa, and  they speak with loudly and they do it quickly.  The last thing the Republican party needs right now is more infighting and attacks thrown at Romney from second tier candidates who help only their own egos and create more ammo for Axelrod in Chicago to use in attempting to get Dear Leader re-elected.

Santorum got his “Obama moment” with his top tier finish, but he’s as unelectable in the general as Paul.  He’s shown that months on the ground and good old fashioned door to door, handshaking politicking still works in Iowa, he’ll have a helluva time repeating it in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

So, with the above, concrete, absolute analysis presented above, the Corner boldly walks out onto that limb of public prediction:

Turn out the lights, the party’s over.

Oh for sure, some still have a couple drinks on the bar and want to party on, but last call’s been called and like it or not, we’re going home with Romney this year.

He may not be the “dream” candidate (thank you for nothing Mitch Daniels) but he’s a helluva lot better than the nightmare our national schizophrenic moment gave us in ’08.

Next stop, New Hampshire.

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2 Responses to Sanity ekes out a win in Iowa

  1. anson burlingame on January 4, 2012 at 9:47 am

    Geoff,

    In essence, I agree. For sure Santorum, Paul, Perry and Bachmann are ultimately history for the real GOP nomination.

    But Romney still needs pressure to show his conservatism, constructively. Gingrich can and should do that. But not with attack ads. Gingrich shot up in the polls based on policy ideas that resonated with many. He should stay in the race and continue to articulate those ideas for a while longer, but again NO attacks on Romney. Simply, I disagree and her is why and what I would do differently.

    Practice for the Super Bowl is still needed. If the GOP just says yes, now to Romney, he could go stale too soon.

    Anson

  2. JW on January 4, 2012 at 11:03 am

    Nice article. I’m personally disappointed with the prospect of Romney as our choice. I’m afraid that there may be many conservatives with whom he does not resonate, similar to what occurred with McCain. I’m concerned with his ability fire up the base. However regardless of the candidate, to quote Fezzik from The Princess Bride “I hope we win.”

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